For the first time in this semifinal series, the pressure may no longer be sitting entirely on Rain or Shine Elasto Painters.
After spending most of the matchup trying to keep pace with the more experienced Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, the Elasto Painters suddenly enter Friday night carrying something different — momentum, belief, and a genuine shot at changing the direction of their franchise.
Rain or Shine forced the PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinal into a virtual best-of-three after a convincing 97-85 win in Game 4, setting up a massive 7:30 p.m. clash at the Smart Araneta Coliseum with the series tied at 2-2.
And while much of the conversation surrounding the series has shifted toward the tension-filled exchange between coach Yeng Guiao and Ginebra governor Alfrancis Chua after the last game, Guiao is more interested in what happens between the lines.
“If you’re coming off a win, you have momentum, you have confidence,” Guiao said.
For the veteran coach, Game 5 is less about emotions and more about mathematics.
“Now [the series is a virtual] best-of-three. So, if it’s a best of three, whoever wins Game 1, has more than a 50 percent chance of winning the series,” he said. “So, I think the biggest (game a team needs to) win is going to be (the game) on Friday.”
Rain or Shine enters the swing game with growing confidence in the formula that brought it back into the series.
Unlike previous years when the Elasto Painters leaned heavily on a few stars, this Rain or Shine squad has survived because of its depth. That identity showed fully in Game 4 when Joshua David and Christian Manaytay delivered key minutes while import Jaylen Johnson and Adrian Nocum dealt with foul trouble.
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The balanced attack helped Rain or Shine dictate the pace and frustrate a Ginebra team that struggled to find enough support outside of Justin Brownlee and Scottie Thompson.
Now the challenge becomes sustaining it.
The Gin Kings remain one of the league’s most battle-tested playoff teams, and Game 5s have historically favored veteran-heavy squads capable of adjusting quickly after losses. Ginebra will likely look for stronger contributions from its supporting cast, particularly rookie RJ Abarrientos after he finished with just eight points on 3-of-8 shooting in Game 4.
Still, this suddenly feels like a different kind of opportunity for Rain or Shine.
The franchise has repeatedly knocked on the door in recent conferences without fully breaking through. Now, it sits two wins away from its first Finals appearance since the 2016 Commissioner’s Cup championship — notably the last conference where no San Miguel Corporation-backed team reached the Finals.
Since then, SMC franchises have controlled the league’s championship landscape for 22 straight conferences.
Rain or Shine now has a chance to finally interrupt that streak again.
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