The 2026 NBA Finals suddenly feels wide open.
What looked like a potential New York Knicks coronation after back-to-back wins in San Antonio has transformed into a highly competitive championship battle after the Spurs stormed back with a 115-111 victory in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden.
Now, with New York still holding a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series, Game 4 becomes one of the most pivotal contests of the Finals. A Knicks victory would put them one win away from capturing their first NBA championship since 1973, while another Spurs triumph would erase New York’s early advantage and turn the series into a virtual best-of-three.
San Antonio finally found the breakthrough it desperately needed on the road.
After struggling offensively through the first two games, the Spurs rediscovered their rhythm behind Victor Wembanyama and a more balanced attack.
The win also snapped New York’s 13-game playoff winning streak and handed the Knicks their first postseason loss in over a month.
For a young Spurs squad chasing its first title since 2014, Game 3 served as proof that the series is far from over.
“We needed that one,” Wembanyama said after the victory. “Now we have to do it again.”
Meanwhile, New York enters Game 4 facing a challenge it has not encountered throughout most of its playoff run — responding to adversity.
The Knicks have thrived in close games all postseason, but Game 3 exposed some vulnerabilities. Their offense stalled late, and San Antonio’s defense successfully limited several of New York’s secondary scoring options during critical stretches.
Despite the loss, head coach Mike Brown remains confident in his group.
“It’s still about us,” Brown said. “We’ve responded all year long.”
Match Information
Match: San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks
Event: NBA Finals – Game 4
Date & Time: Thursday, 8:30 AM (PHT)
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Head-to-Head Context
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Knicks lead series, 2-1
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Spurs won Game 3, 115-111
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Knicks are 8-1 at home this postseason
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Spurs have won seven of their last nine playoff games following a loss
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Victor Wembanyama is averaging 28.3 points through three Finals games
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New York remains unbeaten in consecutive playoff losses this postseason
Key Storylines
Spurs Have Finally Found Momentum
For the first time in the Finals, San Antonio looks comfortable offensively.
After averaging just 99.5 points across the first two games, the Spurs erupted for 115 points in Game 3 while finding answers against New York’s physical defense.
The challenge now is proving that Game 3 was not an outlier.
If San Antonio can duplicate that offensive efficiency, the pressure immediately shifts back to New York.
Can the Knicks Respond?
The Knicks have built their postseason reputation on resilience.
Whether overcoming double-digit deficits against Cleveland or surviving multiple close games throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, New York has consistently found answers when tested.
Game 4 presents another opportunity to demonstrate that toughness.
A victory would restore control of the series and place the Knicks one step from ending a championship drought that stretches back more than five decades.
Wembanyama’s Biggest Stage Yet
The Finals continue to showcase why Victor Wembanyama is considered one of basketball’s brightest stars.
The 7-foot-4 phenom delivered arguably his best all-around performance of the series in Game 3, impacting the game as a scorer, rebounder, rim protector, and facilitator.
If San Antonio hopes to even the series, another dominant performance from its franchise cornerstone will likely be required.
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Predictions & Betting Odds
Game 4 is expected to be another tight battle despite San Antonio’s momentum-shifting victory.
Moneyline Odds
The Knicks enter Game 4 as slight favorites as according to the OKBet sportsbook at 1.73, while the Spurs are listed at 2.04.
The odds continue to favor New York due to home-court advantage and the fact that the Knicks still own the series lead. However, the narrow margin reflects growing confidence in San Antonio following its Game 3 breakthrough.
Probability Estimates
Based on the current odds, New York carries an estimated 58% probability of winning Game 4, while San Antonio sits at approximately 42%.
Those numbers suggest that bookmakers still lean toward the Knicks, but view the matchup as significantly more balanced than it was entering Game 3.
Predictions & Outlook
The pressure now falls squarely on both teams for different reasons.
The Knicks must prove they can immediately respond after their first setback of the Finals, while the Spurs have an opportunity to completely flip the narrative of the championship series.
San Antonio’s path to victory remains clear: continue spreading the floor, limit turnovers, and allow Wembanyama to dictate the game without forcing difficult shots against constant double teams.
For New York, improved late-game execution and stronger secondary scoring will be critical. The Knicks cannot rely solely on their stars if they hope to avoid giving away their early series advantage.
Expect another close contest that could be decided in the final minutes.
What’s at Stake
Game 4 may ultimately determine the direction of the entire NBA Finals.
A Knicks win would establish a commanding 3-1 lead and place New York within touching distance of a long-awaited championship.
A Spurs victory, meanwhile, would level the series at 2-2 and completely erase the momentum New York built through the first two games.
With the Finals now guaranteed to return to San Antonio, both teams understand that Thursday’s showdown could be the turning point of the championship.
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